Energy signals in Turkish-Russian relations after BSEC summit
Source:Energy
Energy signals in Turkish-Russian relations after BSEC summit-by SİNAN OGAN*The Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) held its 15th annual summit in İstanbul. The summit was marked by discussions over intense energy competition in the region, which attracted more debate than the pros and cons of the summit. Even Russian President Vladimir Putin attributed special attention to the energy issue during his speech at the summit and suggested launching the Black Sea Energy Ring Project. Throughout the 1990s there was intense energy competition between Turkey and Russia. It was in 2001 in New York when Turkish and Russian foreign affairs ministers signed the Eurasian Cooperation Agreement and competition ended. The agreement expanded the scope of cooperation between the two countries. In the period following the agreements there was cooperation in the energy sector between Turkey and Russia. However developments in recent months suggest that Turkey and Russia once again have conflicting energy interests. The Turkish Energy Ministry, which lacks a comprehensive energy policy, does not fully understand what Russia would like to do in the energy sector. Certainly Russia’s inability to properly analyze events has a role in the problem. It’s important to analyze and understand Putin, who has written a thesis on Russia’s energy policy. Russia had been offering different cooperation opportunities and energy projects to Turkey for quite some time. The first project Russia offered to Turkey was a role in the construction of the Nabucco pipeline, but Turkey did not provide a sufficient answer. There was a serious problem in this project that stemmed from a lack of support from the US and EU, which had made Turkish opposition a real psychological problem for itself. The project was about cooperation, but they did not provide any economic or political support to this project, which was significantly important for the EU in regards to its energy security. Moscow implemented every strategy to block the project and it was delayed yet again.Russia’s second offer to Turkey was to cooperate in the expansion of the Blue Stream project to transfer Russian gas to southern Europe and Israel. But the Turkish Energy Ministry once again did not provide a complete answer. The ministry conducted analyses and determined the offer would decrease Turkey’s competition power. It was known that the offer was an alternative to the Nabucco pipeline. But what Turkey miscalculated was that Russia was determined and would find itself another partner. In another project Russia expected support for Turkey in construction of the Samsun-Ceyhan project. During the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) Attack/Tactical Reconnaissance Helicopter (ATAK) acquisition project, President Putin personally followed the tender for the 145 helicopters. But as a result of the developments that occurred in the aftermath of Russia’s elimination from the tender, which closed a few months ago, Turkish-Russian relations were pushed into competition in the energy sector. We must never forget that Russia uses energy as a tool in its foreign policy, employs successful energy diplomacy and that every step it takes is part of a preplanned giant project. As a result of cooperation problems with Turkey, Russia bypassed Turkey with its trans-Baltic Nord Stream. It also cut out Ukraine and Poland with the Blue Stream. Now the South Stream project, which will take Russian gas by pipeline under the Black Sea into Bulgaria, will bypass Turkey once again. The South Stream Project that Putin announced during the Balkans Energy Conference was part of an effort to free Russia from dependence on neighbors to transfer its natural gas. Russia did not put all its eggs in the same basket and first bypassed İstanbul’s Bosporus only then bypassing Turkey altogether via Bulgaria and Greece. Given that Russia has signed natural gas agreements with Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan and announced that it will build the South Stream Project, Turkey is no longer the main natural gas supplier to the West. These developments prompted the energy-deprived government to take action. Energy Minister Hilmi Güler all but chased after Putin, who was in Central Asia, but returned empty handed. Then Turkey asked Putin for a role in the Burgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline and the South Stream natural gas pipeline. Lastly Turkey requested support during the BSEC summit for the Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline and noted that they were ready to cooperate in the construction of the second Blue Stream. But it’s clear that without a strategy, diplomacy in energy does not work on a project basis. While there are critical developments taking place in the energy sector all around the world, Turkey’s agenda is occupied by artificial crises and the elections. In response to these developments neither the prime minister, the foreign affairs minister nor the president have taken any steps. The energy minister’s visit to Central Asia, which was only to satisfy spectators, resulted in utter failure. In the elections there is a 50-50 chance you will win or lose and you always have the opportunity to try again. But in foreign policy there is no reconciliation or compensation for mistakes or lost opportunities.