Experts advise balanced policy after Russian blow to CFE
Ankara is on close watch after Russia declared it suspended a key arms control treaty in Europe over a series of disagreements including US plans for a missile shield in Eastern Europe.

Experts say Turkey would be one of the most heavily affected countries with the new balances of power that could emerge following a collapse of the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty and warn that the impacts would be highly negative if Ankara fails to make the right decisions.Russia said on Saturday it would suspend its participation in the CFE, which limits military forces in Europe, in five months’ time unless a compromise was found on updating the treaty. The move follows months of verbal sparring with Europe and Washington on a range of fronts, including proposed independence for Serbia’s Kosovo province and Moscow’s energy policies in addition to the row over the US’ missile shield plans.
Experts say careful and balanced acts would be an asset for Ankara in the new era. Confrontation and relying on one of the sides in the dispute could harm Turkish interests, they say, and advise Turkish policy makers to think free of “old geostrategical constraints” while formulating new policies.
“A new Cold War era has begun and the latest decision by Russia shows that tension is on the rise,” Retired Brig. Gen. Nejat Eslen told Today’s Zaman. According to Eslen, the United States emerged as the sole super power in the post-Cold War era, in which new balances have yet to be established following the collapse of the bi-polar order and power vacuums have yet to be filled.
“The United States attempted to contain new powers in Eurasia, namely China and Russia, in order to be able to control energy sources and energy transportation routes. It is not convincing to say that the US’ plan to build a missile defense shield in eastern Europe is solely targeted at Iran and has nothing to do with Russia; it is indeed directed at Russia,” he said and continued: “Russia is building its power by taking the advantage of rising oil prices in the world. The latest Russian decision to suspend the CFE treaty is a sign that the balances are shifting. It is a sign that Russia has obtained the power to take steps to counterbalance the US’ power.”
Eslen said Turkey should take “courageous acts” not shaped by the geopolitical constraints of the previous era and warned of “risks” if Ankara fails to respond to new dynamics of the new era of changed geostrategical priorities. Elaborating on his proposal, Eslen said Turkey should redefine its relations with the United States, the European Union and NATO and that it should forge closer ties with Russia and Iran without turning its back to the West.
The CFE was adopted in 1990 to limit the number of tanks, heavy artillery and combat aircraft deployed and stored between the Atlantic and Russia’s Ural mountains. If no solution was found in the five-month period, Russia would stop providing information and stop allowing inspections of its heavy weapons.
NATO, Washington and the European Union expressed regret and disappointment at the Russian move.
Associate Professor Mensur Akgün, director of the foreign policy program at the İstanbul based-Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV), stressed that the CFE’s capacity to build confidence between the West and Russia collapsed with the Russian move to suspend it.
In case of an entire collapse of the CFE, the country that will be mostly influenced from this situation will be Turkey, Akgün suggested.
“There are complex limitations within the CFE regime. There are problems within NATO; Greece and Turkey, two members of the Alliance, do not trust each other, for instance. A Russian objection to withdraw its troops from Georgia would also influence Turkey. Therefore, in case of an entire collapse of the CFE, such problems will spread over the whole of Europe. There are other internal problems in NATO in addition to problems between Greece and Turkey,” Akgün said.
“There is not much Turkey can do for preventing the CFE from collapsing,” he added.
While noting that the need for Turkey would gradually increase within the framework of the EU’s Common and Foreign Security Policy (CFSP), Akgün suggested that Ankara should not behave in a “reactionary” manner regarding developments concerning the CFE.
Another foreign policy expert, Cengiz Okman, head of the international relations department at the Marmara University, said “Russia’s suspension of solely one agreement, namely the CFE, would not yield a definite consequence.”
Okman said Russia’s move amounted to “seeking ways out along a transition process,” and proposed that Turkey should not assume “a hostile attitude” toward Russia. He also said that Ankara should formulate its policies without relying on a certain bloc.
“The reasons leading Russia to make such a decision should be well understood,” Okman added.
16.07.2007
Süleyman Kurt Ankara